Can You Retire?

About You

Current Age

Retirement Age

Life Expectancy

Savings & Assets

Total Investable Assets Today

Annual Savings / Contributions

Savings Growth Rate / Year

Stock / Bond Allocation

Stocks (S&P 500) ← → Bonds (US Aggregate)

70% / 30%

At retirement: — expected return · — volatility · Starting alloc → glide path steps down to retirement

Glide path — auto step-down allocation by decade toward retirement

Fund Type

Stock %

Exp. Return

Volatility

Examples

All Equities

100 / 0

11.9%

19.4%

VTI, FXAIX, SWTSX

Growth Portfolio

90 / 10

11.2%

17.5%

VT, VTWAX

Balanced Growth

70 / 30

9.8%

13.7%

VBIAX, DGSIX (div.)

Classic 60/40

60 / 40

8.9%

11.7%

VSMGX, VBINX

Dividend Focus

50 / 50

8.4%

9.9%

VYM, SCHD, DVY

Conservative

40 / 60

7.5%

8.2%

VSCGX, FTBFX blend

Income / Bonds

20 / 80

6.2%

6.5%

BND, AGG, VBTLX

↑ Click a row to set the slider. Dividend funds (VYM, SCHD) behave like ~50/50 in volatility terms. Slider drives Monte Carlo σ; decade fields below drive the deterministic table.

Expected Returns by Decade

Auto-filled using a retirement-relative glide path — steepest de-risking in the decade before retirement (the sequence-of-returns danger zone). Edit any field to override. Floor: 20% stocks minimum.

Green border = auto-filled · Amber border = manually overridden · Stock % shown in parentheses

Retirement Income Sources

Social Security (combined)

SS Starts at Age Get your monthly estimate at ssa.gov/estimator ↗

Annual Pension

Other Annual Income (rental, part-time, etc.)

Expenses

Set two spending tiers. Common reasons expenses drop at a specific age: mortgage paid off · kids off payroll / tuition done · no more commuting · downsizing · Medicare at 65 replaces private insurance · no longer saving for retirement. Late-life healthcare cost increases are not modeled.

Early Retirement Expenses

Until Age

Later Retirement Expenses

Current / Pre-Retirement Expenses (saving phase only)

Assumptions

Inflation Rate

Tax Rate on Withdrawals

Monte Carlo Simulations

Running simulations…

Monte Carlo

—

Historical Stress Test

—

Portfolio at Retirement

—

Annual Need from Portfolio

—

Safe Withdrawal Rate

—

≤4% historically safe · 4–6% elevated risk · >6% high risk

Median Final Portfolio

—

10th Percentile Outcome

—

90th Percentile Outcome

—

Portfolio Trajectory

Monte Carlo band (10th–90th pct shaded) + median + deterministic base case (dashed amber). Retirement phase only.

Named Historical Scenarios

How your plan fares starting in key market years

Year-by-Year Median Outcome

Retirement phase uses the median Monte Carlo path (50th percentile) — half of all simulations did better, half worse. Returns vary year-to-year as in real markets. Saving phase uses deterministic decade rates. Nominal figures.

Year / Age	Phase	Return	Expenses	Other Income	From Portfolio	Portfolio Balance

Monte Carlo draws returns from a normal distribution using blended mean & σ for your allocation (Damodaran 1928–2025). Historical stress test tests all rolling windows in the dataset. Retirement-relative glide path: −3%/decade stocks at T−30 to T−20, −8% at T−20 to T−10, −15% at T−10 to T−0, −10% at T+0 to T+10, −5% thereafter. Floor: 20% stocks. For educational purposes only. Consult a fee-only fiduciary advisor before making retirement decisions.